本文關鍵詞：改革開放前中國的技術進步對產出的貢獻研究　出處：《山東大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 改革開放前 技術進步對經濟增長的貢獻 投入產出效率 全要素生產率

【摘要】：在衡量技術進步時,學者們多采用計量經濟學模型來度量全要素生產率,索洛余值至今仍是研究的主流思路。實際上,相比與技術進步的概念,索洛余值過于寬泛。其所測算出的全要素生產率確實比起之前的測度某單個要素的生產效率來衡量技術水平要高明得多,但仍然不能與技術進步在概念上劃等號。此外學者們也沒有在TPF的概念范疇的問題上達成準確共識,這種自由隨意的處理方式是導致其測度結果甚至結論差異的一個重要原因。本文基于搜集、整理到的中國改革開放前的投入產出數據,結合結構分解分析的方法,以技術系數矩陣在三段主要時期的變動來刻畫中國當時的的投入產出效率演變情況。并進一步將最終產出的時期變化結構分解成技術進步以及總投入變動的影響,以測度改革開放前技術進步的產出貢獻。簡單而言,就是將技術系數A的改動所帶來的最終產出的提高視為技術進步對國民經濟及其各部門的貢獻。我們知道技術系數A以及相應的列昂惕夫矩陣L=(I-A)-1,作為投入產出學里最基本的概念,前者表示經濟部門單位產出對經濟中各物質的消耗,后者則表示出經濟部門單位最終產出上對其余部門收入的拉動量。A和L定量地對各個經濟部門的投產關系進行描述,而這種產生于各方面因素的關系實際上暗含著一個國家及其各部門在一定時期的關于經濟結構以及經濟技術狀況的信息,同時也是受于技術進步的最直接的好處。這也就是說,用直接消耗系數A的變化亦即一定投入下產出的變化來表達技術進步是合理的。更微觀地,其各列數值的變化代表著相應部門技術的演變。實際上,用一個更廣闊的視角來看,生產的每一個環節,例如、產品的研發、能源材料的投放、生產過程中的工藝流程到最終生產出產品,都少不了技術的貢獻。另一方面,這些環節上的變化,有基本都會在投入產出關系上留下痕跡。我們希望通過搜集、記錄中國改革開放前的投入產出數據,制作出一個1957年至1973年間主要年份的直接消耗系數A的年代表來分析、研究改革開放前投入產出效率。投入產出表首先是一個龐大的縮影了一個國家、地區經濟系統的數據庫。從中能反映出許多錯綜復雜的濟關系,尤其是部經門與部門之間(或地區之間)的物質或價值消耗與分配關系。本文準備有效地利用這種數據模型分析反應改革開放前一段歷史時期中國家及各部門的經濟技術狀況。鑒于官方公布的全國性投入產出表始于1987年,為了滿足研究分析的需要,作者與導師及組內其他成員一起合作,搜集、記錄了中國改革開放前(主要是1952年至1973年間的四個主要年份)投入產出數據。數據的搜集主要牽涉兩個層面,全國性統計數據以及代表性工廠的投入產出數據(最后以各廠產出為權數匯總記錄相關產品的投入產出系數)。前者的數據來源于《中國工業交通能源50年統計資料匯編》數據,后者來源于各個代表性工廠廠志。這張投入產出表涉及161個細分的產品種類以及18大部類(包括農業,煤炭采選業,化學工業等等)。我在其中的幾個部類中各挑選了一到兩種具有代表性的產品:如在"煤炭開選業"中挑選了原煤,"電力煤氣自來水生產和供應業"中挑選了發電,在"化學工業"里挑選了合成氨、電石,在"建筑業"里挑選了水泥、平板玻璃,在"食品紡織造紙家具"中挑選了啤酒、粘膠纖維等。對這些挑選出的代表性產品,又進一步挑選出它們各自的主要消耗品,并將從1952年至1973的消耗數量制作成表格以及曲線圖,以呈現出它們的變化便接下來作進一步的分析和評價。此外,在記錄數據時,我們考慮了價格指數因素,對此我作出了 1952年至1973年的價格指數曲線。該數據來源于《新中國60年統計資料匯編-全國各種價格定基指數》。最后一提的是,投入產出模型不僅可以用消耗系數A來刻畫各部門、各環節之間直接的物質或價值的技術聯系,還可以方便的進行進一步的計算得出各部門、各環節之間間接的技術聯系,這也是投入產出方法的一項重要優點。需要注意的是,技術、價格、部門構成的變化可能都會影響到價值型技術系數矩陣A。因此,為了更為準確的建立起技術進步與直接消耗系數之間的關系,需要從A的變化中剔除掉后兩者(即價格和部門構成)變化所帶來的影響。
[Abstract]:In the measure of technological progress, many scholars use econometric model to measure the total factor productivity, Solow residual value is still the mainstream thinking of research. In fact, compared with the concept of technological progress, the Solow residual value is too broad. It calculates the total factor productivity does measure than before a single factor production efficiency to measure the technology level was much better, but still can not be equated with technological progress in concept. In addition scholars also have in the concept of TPF issues to achieve accurate consensus, this free random processing is an important cause of the measurement results and even differences. Based on the conclusion collection, input and output data China before the reform and opening up to the finishing, combining with the analysis method of structure decomposition, the coefficient matrix in the main technology section three changes to describe the investment Chinese The output efficiency of evolution. And further will affect the final output of the changes in the structure is decomposed into technological progress and changes in the total input, output contribution to measure before the reform and opening up of technical progress. In simple terms, is the final output caused by the change in technology of the coefficients of A increase as technology progress contribution to the national economy and the Department. We know the technical coefficient A and the corresponding Leon Leontief matrix L= (I-A) -1 as input and output in the most basic concept, the former Department said the economic unit of output consumption of each substance in the economy, the latter is shown in the final output of economic departments other departments in driving revenue.A and L quantitatively in every sector of the economy production relationship is described, and the relationship to various factors implies a country and its various departments in a certain period of time. In the economic structure and economic situation of the information technology, the most direct benefit is also subject to technological progress. That is to say, with the changes that the direct consumption coefficient of A changes under certain input output to express the technical progress is reasonable. More micro, change the value of the column represents the corresponding department technology. In fact, with a broader perspective, every aspect of production, such as product development, delivery of energy materials, the production process in the process to the final product, not the technical contribution. On the other hand, changes in these links, there are will leave traces in the input-output relations. We hope that through collecting, recording China input before the reform and opening up the output data produced in the form of direct consumption coefficient A a year from 1957 to 1973, mainly to analysis, research The input and output efficiency. Before the reform and opening up the first input-output table is a huge epitome of a country, regional economic system database. To reflect the many perplexing economic relations from, especially between the door and the Department (or by the area between material consumption and value) or distribution relationship. This paper is prepared the effective use of this data model, economic and technical analysis of the state reaction before the reform and opening up period and each department. In view of the official national input-output table in 1987, in order to meet the needs of research and analysis, as the other members and instructors and group together to collect, record China before the reform and opening up (mainly four years from 1952 to 1973) input-output data. Data collected mainly involves two aspects, national statistics and the input-output representative factory The data (the last in each factory output for each summary of input-output coefficient records related products). The data from the "China industrial transportation energy statistics compilation > 50 years data, the latter from each representative plant records. This input-output table involves 161 segments of the product categories and 18 categories (including agriculture, coal mining industry, chemical industry and so on). I chose two representative products in several categories:" as in the coal industry in the open "select" coal, electricity gas tap water production and supply industry "selected" in power generation, chemical industry "in the selection of synthetic ammonia, calcium carbide, in the" construction "in the selection of cement, plate glass, in the" food textile and paper furniture "in the selection of the beer, viscose fiber. For the selected representative products, and further pick out their main consumer The consumption of goods, and from 1952 to 1973 the number of consumption made tables and graphs, by showing them the next change will be analyzed and further evaluation. In addition, while recording data, we consider the price index, which I made a price index from 1952 to 1973. The curve data from "the compilation of Statistics - 60 years of new Chinese price fixed base index. The last mention is that the input-output model can be used not only to describe the consumption coefficient A departments, material or value of the technology for direct contact between the various sectors, but also to facilitate the further calculation of each department, indirect technology contact between the various sectors, this is an important advantage of the input-output method. Note that the price change in the Department of technology, may pose will affect the value of the coefficient matrix A. for this type of technology, in order to More accurately establishing the relationship between technological progress and direct consumption coefficient, we need to eliminate the impact of the latter two changes, namely price and sector structure, from the change of A.

【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F129

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本文編號：1395023