本文選題：林業PMI指數 + 時差相關分析　； 參考：《統計與決策》2017年08期

【摘要】：林業PMI是我國乃至全球范圍內第一個監測林業經濟運行態勢的月度指標,其科學性和領先性決定了它的實踐和應用價值。文章使用時差互相關分析檢驗了林業PMI及其進出口指數的領先性,結果顯示林業PMI領先于我國木材加工行業數據1個月感知行業運行走勢,林業PMI出口指數領先海關出口數據0~1個月,林業PMI進口指數領先海關進口數據1~3個月。
[Abstract]:Forestry PMI is the first monthly index to monitor forestry economic running situation in our country and even the whole world. Its scientific nature and leading character determine its practice and application value. The paper tests the forerunner of forestry PMI and its import and export index by means of time difference cross-correlation analysis. The results show that forestry PMI is ahead of China's timber processing industry data in one month's perceived operation trend. The forestry PMI export index leads the customs export data by 0 ~ 1 month, and the forestry PMI import index leads the customs import data by 1 ~ 3 months.
【作者單位】： 中央財經大學經濟學院;中國林業科學研究院科信所;北京林業大學經濟管理學院;
【基金】：國際熱帶木材組織(ITTO)項目(TFL-PD 017/09 Rev.2(M))
【分類號】：F326.2
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本文編號：1898407