本文關鍵詞： 停運率 架空線路 可靠性 模糊規則 模糊推理 臺風 冰災　出處：《華北電力大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：架空線路作為連接不同地區電力設施的必要部分,是電網中最重要的電力元件。隨著經濟和城市化的不斷發展,電能傳輸需求的不斷增加,電網不斷延伸,系統的安全性和可靠性越來越得到人們的重視。架空線路跨越范圍廣,不但連接不同地區變電站、發電廠和負荷點,還起著傳輸電能的作用。架空線路故障可能造成電網的大面積停電,嚴重影響生產、生活,甚至造成重大經濟損失。研究架空線路可靠性,提高架空線路安全穩定性,有重大的實際意義。建立合理的架空線路停運模型,得到精確的可靠性原始參數,是架空線路可靠性研究的重要工作之一,也為整個電力系統的可靠性評估打下基礎。 近年來氣候異常,氣候災害越來越頻繁。架空線路又架設在地面之上,常年暴露在外界環境中,是電力系統中受臺風、冰凍災害影響最大的設備。極端氣候雖持續時間不長,但其造成的影響卻極其惡劣,使停運率急劇增加。若不考慮氣候災害對架空線路停運率的影響,會使評估結果遠遠偏離實際,給電力系統規劃和調度人員帶來誤導。建立氣候災害下架空線路的停運模型,得到停運率,有利于氣候災害條件下的線路風險評估。 本文分析了臺風和冰災等自然災害對架空線路停運的影響,介紹了關于氣候災害對電力系統影響的研究現狀,分析了幾種常用研究方法的優缺點；研究了偏最小二乘建模和模糊建模兩種基于小樣本的元件停運率建模方法,分析了兩種方法的優缺點及適用范圍。分析了正常氣候下影響線路停運的主要因素,并分別建立了基于線路老化和運行工況的正常氣候條件下架空線路的停運模型。分析了臺風的特點和發生規律,研究了架空線路受臺風影響的停運因素,建立了以風力載荷、地形系數和現在自身狀況系數為輸入的模糊推理模型,并通過實際算例驗證了模型的有效性。分析了冰災的特點,研究了架空線路受冰災影響的停運因素,建立了以風力載荷、海拔高度和除冰措施為輸入的停運模型,并通過算例分析驗證了模型的優越性。
[Abstract]:Overhead line is the most important power element in the power network, as a necessary part to connect the power facilities in different areas. With the development of economy and urbanization, the demand for electric power transmission is increasing, and the power grid is extending. More and more attention has been paid to the safety and reliability of the system. Overhead lines span a wide range, not only connected to different regions of the substation, power plants and load points. The fault of overhead line may cause power outage in a large area of the power network, seriously affect production, life and even cause great economic losses. Study on reliability of overhead line. It is of great practical significance to improve the safety and stability of overhead lines. It is one of the important tasks to establish a reasonable outage model of overhead lines and obtain accurate original reliability parameters. It also lays the foundation for the reliability evaluation of the whole power system. In recent years, the climate is abnormal, climate disasters are more and more frequent, overhead lines are set up on the ground, exposed to the external environment all the year round, it is a typhoon in the power system. The equipment with the greatest impact of freezing disaster. Although the extreme climate does not last for a long time, but its impact is extremely bad, resulting in a sharp increase in the outage rate. If we do not consider the impact of climate disasters on the overhead line outage rate. The evaluation results will deviate from the actual situation and mislead the power system planning and dispatching personnel. The outage model of overhead lines under the climate disaster will be established and the outage rate will be obtained. It is beneficial to the route risk assessment under the condition of climate disaster. In this paper, the influence of natural disasters, such as typhoon and ice disaster, on overhead line outage is analyzed, and the research status of climate disaster on power system is introduced, and the advantages and disadvantages of several common research methods are analyzed. Two modeling methods of component outage rate based on small sample, partial least squares modeling and fuzzy modeling, are studied, the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods and their application range are analyzed, and the main factors affecting line outage in normal climate are analyzed. The outage models of overhead lines under normal climatic conditions are established based on the aging and operating conditions of the lines respectively. The characteristics and occurrence rules of typhoons are analyzed and the factors affecting the outage of overhead lines are studied. The fuzzy inference model with wind load, terrain coefficient and present condition coefficient as input is established, and the validity of the model is verified by practical examples. The characteristics of ice disaster are analyzed. The outage factors of overhead lines affected by ice disaster are studied, and the outage model with wind load, altitude and deicing measures as input is established, and the superiority of the model is verified by an example.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM752

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