【摘要】：干旱一直是困擾人類的重大難題,尤其是西北地區干旱情況愈發嚴重。隨著干旱情況日益突出,水庫在抗旱研究中的作用越來越凸顯,水庫的合理調度運行在抗旱減災中具有重要意義。本文致力于渭河流域馮家山水庫的抗旱調度研究,旨在通過水庫調節來緩解流域旱情。研究方法與主要成果如下:(1)以氣象、水文指標為基礎構建馮家山水庫綜合干旱指標,采用熵權法與模糊綜合評價法計算灌區長系列綜合干旱指數CDI,并依據區域干旱等級標準評價灌區干旱等級,分析馮家山水庫干旱特征,結果表明:庫區干旱程度整體呈緩慢增加趨勢;90年代干旱次數迅速增多,是旱情最為嚴峻的時期;干旱最嚴重的時段為1986、1995和1997年;灌區干旱主要集中在春、秋兩季。(2)建立缺水量最小的馮家山水庫優化調度模型,采用動態規劃法求解出水庫運行過程,選擇多年月平均降水、水庫多年月平均入流及月平均水位三個指標作為樣本值,利用專家評判法確定各樣本因子的權重系數,采用Fisher最優分割法確定水庫干旱分期,確定劃分為4個分期:1月～3月,4月～6月,7月～10月,11月～12月。結合干旱等級與優化的水庫水位結果確定各分期不同干旱等級對應的旱限水位。(3)先利用適線法確定馮家山水庫的典型年,在水庫優化調度的基礎上考慮分期旱限水位,建立應對干旱的馮家山水庫抗旱調度模型,采用動態規劃法求解模型,從缺水量(長系列、典型年、連續枯水年)和供水保證率的角度對抗旱調度前后的結果進行對比分析,結果表明:缺水集中發生在90年代,抗旱調度前后長系列平均缺水率分別為3.35%、2.69%,抗旱后比抗旱前減小了 0.66%;特枯水年、偏枯水年抗旱調度后的缺水率分別比抗旱前減小了 2.91%、10.86%,平水年減小了 923萬m3;抗旱調度前后偏豐水年與特豐水年均不缺水;抗旱調度后連續枯水年平均缺水率比抗旱前減小了 2.77%;抗旱調度后的年保證率高于抗旱前,生活、農業用水保證率分別增加了 2.3%、4.5%,生產、生態用水保證率不變。
[Abstract]:Drought has always been a major problem perplexing human beings, especially the drought situation in northwest China is becoming more and more serious. With the increasingly prominent drought situation, the role of reservoirs in drought resistance research is becoming more and more prominent, and the reasonable operation of reservoirs is of great significance in drought resistance and disaster reduction. This paper is devoted to the study of drought resistance operation of Fengjiashan Reservoir in Weihe River Basin, in order to alleviate the drought situation of Fengjiashan Reservoir through reservoir regulation. The research methods and main results are as follows: (1) based on meteorological and hydrological indexes, the comprehensive drought index of Fengjiashan Reservoir is constructed, and the long series comprehensive drought index CDI, of irrigation district is calculated by entropy weight method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. According to the regional drought grade standard, the drought grade of irrigation area is evaluated, and the drought characteristics of Fengjiashan Reservoir are analyzed. the results show that the drought degree of Fengjiashan Reservoir area as a whole tends to increase slowly. In the 1990s, the number of droughts increased rapidly, which was the most severe period of drought, the worst period of drought was 1986, 1995 and 1997, and the worst period of drought was 1986, 1995 and 1997. The drought in irrigation area is mainly concentrated in spring and autumn. (2) the optimal operation model of Fengjiashan Reservoir with the least water shortage is established, the operation process of the reservoir is solved by dynamic programming method, and the monthly average precipitation is selected for many years. Three indexes of monthly average inflow and monthly average water level of reservoir are used as sample values. The weight coefficient of each sample factor is determined by expert evaluation method, and the drought stage of reservoir is determined by Fisher optimal segmentation method. It was divided into four stages: January to March, April to June, July to October, November to December. Combined with the results of drought grade and optimized reservoir water level, the drought limit water level corresponding to different drought grades in each stage is determined. (3) the typical year of Fengjiashan Reservoir is determined by the method of suitability, and the stage drought limit water level is considered on the basis of reservoir optimal operation. The drought resistance operation model of Fengjiashan Reservoir is established, and the model is solved by dynamic programming method. The results before and after drought resistance operation are compared and analyzed from the point of view of water shortage (long series, typical years, continuous dry years) and water supply guarantee rate. The results showed that the water shortage occurred in the 1990s, and the average water shortage rate of the long series before and after drought resistance dispatching was 3.35% and 2.69% respectively, which decreased by 0.66% after drought resistance compared with that before drought resistance. In the special dry year, the water shortage rate after drought resistance regulation in the dry year is 2.91%, 10.86% and 9.23 million m ~ 3 lower than that before drought resistance, respectively, and there is no water shortage in the high water year and the special water year before and after drought resistance dispatching, and the water shortage rate in the low water year is 2.91% and 10.86% respectively, and that in the flat water year is 9.23 million m ~ 3, respectively. The average annual water shortage rate of continuous dry water after drought resistance dispatching was 2.77% lower than that before drought resistance. The annual guarantee rate after drought resistance dispatching was higher than that before drought resistance. The guarantee rate of daily and agricultural water use increased by 2.3% and 4.5% respectively. The guarantee rate of production and ecological water use remained unchanged.
【學位授予單位】：西安理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV697.1

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