【摘要】：水利水電巖土工程包含多種不確定性因素,如巖土體參數不確定性、測量誤差導致的認知不確定性和模型不確定性等,其中巖土體固有的不均勻性對巖土工程可靠度分析有重要的影響。由于土體普遍經歷不同的地質、環境和化學作用,這導致不同深度的土體特性參數如抗剪強度參數往往呈現隨深度變化的趨勢,然而,目前大多數巖土工程可靠度分析雖然考慮了土性參數空間變異性的影響,但是土性參數隨深度變化趨勢對巖土結構物可靠度的影響還缺少深入的研究,如抗剪強度參數均值或標準差隨深度變化對巖土結構物可靠度的影響規律等。另一方面,實際巖土工程中還存在另一種形式的巖土體不均勻性,即地層變異性。它表現為不同類型巖土材料的互相嵌套或一種類型土體材料在另一種較均質土體材料中不規則出現。這種地層變異性在其他領域如石油勘探、地下水及污染物運移研究中得到了足夠的重視。巖土工程領域雖然很早就意識到地層變異性對巖土工程安全的影響,如有研究表明地層變異性對滑坡分布和方向有重要影響。然而,地層變異性對于巖土工程可靠度的影響還未見研究。此外,石油勘探,地下水污染物運移中都是采用基于大尺度分析的地層變異性模擬方法。對于大多數巖土結構物來說,這種地層變異性模擬方法不一定適用。因此,亟需發展適用于巖土結構物尺度的地層變異性模擬方法,在此基礎上探討地層變異性對巖土結構物可靠度的影響規律。此外,現有的考慮空間變異性的邊坡可靠度分析大多關注邊坡失效概率的計算,對于空間變異性對邊坡失效模式的影響研究不夠深入,而邊坡最危險滑動面直接決定著邊坡失穩的規模和尺寸,直接影響邊坡失效后果評估。非常有必要深入研究土體參數空間變異性對邊坡最危險滑動面分布規律的影響。針對上述3個關鍵科學問題,本文重點研究土體抗剪強度參數隨深度變化的空間變異性和地層變異性模擬方法,在此基礎上探討這兩種土體不均勻性對巖土結構物可靠度的影響規律,同時研究土體參數空間變異性對邊坡最危險滑動面的影響。主要研究內容包括：基于非平穩隨機場的土體抗剪強度參數空間變異性建模方法、土體空間變異性對邊坡最危險滑動面的影響、考慮土體參數空間變異性的巖土結構物可靠度分析方法、基于鉆孔資料的耦合馬爾可夫鏈水平方向轉移概率矩陣估計、考慮地層變異性的邊坡穩定性分析方法。主要工作及結論如下：(1)闡述了考慮土體不均勻性的巖土工程可靠度分析的研究背景及意義,回顧了巖土參數不確定性的建模方法,指出了存在的問題和需要改進的方向。歸納了考慮參數空間變異性的巖土工程可靠度分析方法及研究對象。簡要概述了地層變異性在巖土工程領域的研究現狀,分析了考慮地層變異性的巖土工程可靠度關鍵問題,介紹了馬爾可夫鏈模型在工程領域的應用情況。(2)為了研究抗剪強度參數隨深度變化趨勢對巖土結構物可靠度的影響,提出了表征抗剪強度參數空間變異性的非平穩隨機場模型及其模擬方法。從經驗公式和實測數據兩方面驗證了不排水抗剪強度參數和有效內摩擦角隨土體深度變化的趨勢,指出了兩者非平穩隨機場模型的差異,建立了不排水抗剪強度參數和有效內摩擦角的非平穩隨機場模型,為利用總應力和有效應力方法考慮參數隨深度變化趨勢的空間變異性奠定了一定的理論基礎。(3)針對考慮巖土體參數空間變異性的邊坡最危險滑動面分布特征問題,提出了考慮土體抗剪強度參數空間變異性的邊坡最危險滑動面確定方法,探討了土體抗剪強度參數的波動范圍和變異系數對邊坡最危險滑動面分布規律的影響,揭示了抗剪強度參數空間變異性對邊坡最危險滑動面位置、規模和分布范圍的影響規律,為考慮土體參數空間變異性的邊坡破壞模式確定提供了有效的分析工具。(4)提出了考慮土體抗剪強度參數均值隨深度變化的無限長邊坡穩定性概率分析方法,建立了表征土體抗剪強度參數空間變異性的非平穩隨機場模型,探討了考慮土體抗剪強度參數空間變異性時邊坡失效概率和最危險滑動面的變化規律,以無限長不排水黏性土坡和摩擦/黏性土坡為例驗證了所提方法的有效性,搜集了現實中實際滑坡案例驗證了數值分析結果的正確性。研究成果為實際工程中大多數滑坡發生淺層破壞現象提供了有效依據。(5)提出了考慮土體不排水抗剪強度均值和標準差隨深度變化的地基穩定性概率分析方法,闡明了土體不排水抗剪強度參數空間變異性對地基極限承載力的影響規律,系統地比較了不排水抗剪強度參數平穩和非平穩隨機場模型對地基極限承載力的影響。得出了忽略不排水抗剪強度參數隨深度變化趨勢將會明顯低估不排水條件下地基可靠度的重要結論,為改進地基可靠度設計提供了方向。(6)針對巖土結構物中地層變異性模擬問題,提出了一種新的耦合馬爾可夫鏈水平方向轉移概率矩陣估計方法,實現了巖土結構物地層變異性的精細模擬。搜集了不同地區的鉆孔資料,檢驗了土體狀態轉移的一階馬爾可夫性,驗證了所提方法的有效性。在此基礎上,研究了土體狀態轉移馬爾可夫鏈水平方向轉移概率矩陣和豎直方向轉移概率矩陣的一般規律,實現了土體狀態轉移水平方向轉移概率矩陣的有效估計,為巖土工程中地層變異性的模擬奠定了理論基礎。(7)提出了考慮地層變異性時邊坡穩定安全系數分析方法,建立了基于鉆孔資料和耦合馬爾可夫鏈的地層變異性模型,基于有限元應力法建立了考慮地層變異性時邊坡穩定性概率分析方法。分析了不同鉆孔布置方案對邊坡穩定安全系數不確定性的影響,建議了最外圍鉆孔距邊坡坡頂(或坡腳)的合適距離,闡明了鉆孔位置、數目對邊坡穩定安全系數和最危險滑動面不確定性的影響規律,為地質勘探方案設計提供了理論指導。
[Abstract]:The geotechnical engineering of water and water resources has many uncertainties, such as the uncertainty of the parameters of the rock and soil body, the cognitive uncertainty and the model uncertainty caused by the measurement error, etc., in which the inherent non-uniformity of the rock and soil body has an important influence on the reliability analysis of the geotechnical engineering. due to the different geological, environmental and chemical effects of the soil body, the soil property parameters such as shear strength parameters of different depths tend to exhibit a tendency to change with depth, however, At present, the reliability analysis of most geotechnical engineering has taken into account the influence of the spatial variability of the soil parameters, but the influence of the soil property parameters with the depth change trend on the reliability of the soil structure is still lacking. Such as the influence of the mean or standard deviation of the shear strength parameter on the reliability of the rock and soil structure with the depth change, and the like. On the other hand, there is another form of heterogeneity of the rock and soil in the practical geotechnical engineering, that is, the formation variability. It shows that the internesting of different types of rock and soil materials or one type of soil material is irregular in another relatively homogeneous soil material. Such formation variability has been given sufficient attention in other fields, such as oil exploration, groundwater and pollutant migration. Although the geotechnical engineering field has long been aware of the effect of formation variability on the safety of the geotechnical engineering, the study indicates that the formation variability has an important effect on the distribution and direction of the landslide. However, the effect of formation variability on the reliability of geotechnical engineering is not shown in the study. In addition, the formation variability simulation method based on large-scale analysis is adopted in the migration of oil and groundwater pollutants. For most rock-and-soil structures, this method of formation variability is not necessarily applicable. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a method for simulating the formation variability applicable to the scale of the rock and soil structure, and on this basis, the effect of formation variability on the reliability of the rock and soil structure is discussed. In addition, the existing slope reliability analysis considering the spatial variability is mostly concerned with the calculation of the failure probability of the slope, the influence of the spatial variability on the failure mode of the slope is not deep enough, and the most dangerous sliding surface of the slope directly determines the scale and the size of the slope failure, And directly influence the slope failure consequence assessment. It is necessary to study the effect of the spatial variability of soil parameters on the distribution of the most dangerous sliding surface of the slope. In view of the above three key scientific problems, this paper focuses on the spatial variability of the soil shear strength parameter with depth and the simulation method of the formation variability, and on the basis of this, the influence of the non-uniformity of the two soils on the reliability of the soil structure is discussed. The effect of the spatial variability of the soil parameters on the most dangerous sliding surface of the slope is also studied. The main research contents include the method of modeling the spatial variability of the shear strength of the soil in the non-stationary random field, the influence of the soil spatial variability on the most dangerous sliding surface of the slope, and the reliability analysis method of the soil-soil structure considering the spatial variability of the soil parameters, The method of slope stability analysis considering the formation variability is given based on the estimation of the probability matrix of the horizontal transfer probability of the coupled Markov chain based on the drilling data. The main work and conclusions are as follows: (1) The research background and significance of the reliability analysis of the geotechnical engineering considering the non-uniformity of the soil body are described, the modeling method of the uncertainty of the geotechnical parameters is reviewed, and the existing problems and the direction to be improved are pointed out. The reliability analysis method and the research object of the geotechnical engineering considering the spatial variability of the parameters are summarized. The present situation of the formation variability in the field of geotechnical engineering is briefly introduced, and the key problem of the reliability of the geotechnical engineering considering the formation variability is analyzed, and the application of the Markov chain model in the field of engineering is introduced. (2) In order to study the effect of the variation trend of shear strength on the reliability of the rock and soil structure, the non-stationary random field model and its simulation method to characterize the spatial variability of the shear strength parameter are put forward. The trend of the non-drained shear strength and the effective internal friction angle with the depth of the soil is verified from the empirical formula and the measured data, and the non-stationary random field model of the non-drained shear strength parameter and the effective internal friction angle is established by the difference between the non-smooth shear strength parameters and the effective internal friction angle. In order to use the total stress and effective stress method to consider the spatial variability of the parameters with the depth trend, a certain theoretical foundation is laid. (3) The method for determining the most dangerous sliding surface of the side slope considering the spatial variability of the shear strength of the soil is proposed in view of the problem of the distribution of the most dangerous sliding surface of the side slope considering the spatial variability of the rock and soil parameters. The influence of the fluctuation range and coefficient of variation of the shear strength parameter of soil on the distribution of the most dangerous sliding surface of the slope is discussed, and the influence of the spatial variability of the shear strength parameter on the position, scale and distribution of the most dangerous sliding surface of the slope is revealed. An effective analytical tool is provided to determine the slope failure mode of the spatial variability of soil parameters. (4) An infinite long slope stability probability analysis method considering the variation of the mean value of the shear strength of the soil body with the depth is put forward, and a non-stationary random field model for characterizing the spatial variability of the shear strength parameter of the soil body is established, The change law of slope failure probability and the most dangerous sliding surface in consideration of the spatial variability of the shear strength of the soil is discussed, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by taking an infinite long non-drainage cohesive soil slope and a friction/ cohesive soil slope as an example. The correctness of the results of the numerical analysis is verified by the actual landslide case in the real world. The research results provide an effective basis for the occurrence of shallow damage in most landslides in the actual project. (5) The method of foundation stability probability analysis considering the mean and standard deviation of the non-drained shear strength of the soil and the variation of the standard deviation with the depth is put forward, and the influence of the spatial variability of the non-drainage shear strength of the soil on the ultimate bearing capacity of the foundation is clarified. The effect of undrained shear strength parameters on the ultimate bearing capacity of the foundation is systematically compared. It is concluded that ignoring the variation trend of the non-drained shear strength parameter with the depth will significantly undervalue the reliability of the foundation under the undrained condition, and provides a direction for improving the reliability design of the foundation. (6) In order to simulate the formation variability in the rock and soil structure, a new method for estimating the horizontal transfer probability matrix of the coupled Markov chain is proposed, and the fine simulation of the formation variability of the rock and soil structure is realized. The first-order Markov property of the state transition of the soil is checked, and the validity of the proposed method is verified. On the basis of this, the general rule of the transition probability matrix and the vertical direction transfer probability matrix of the state transition Markov chain of the soil is studied, and the effective estimation of the transfer probability matrix in the horizontal direction of the state of the soil is realized. It lays a theoretical foundation for the simulation of formation variability in geotechnical engineering. (7) The method of slope stability safety factor analysis based on borehole data and coupled Markov chain is put forward, and the method of slope stability probability analysis is established based on the finite element stress method. The influence of different drilling arrangement schemes on the uncertainty of the safety factor of the slope stability is analyzed, and the appropriate distance between the most peripheral drilling hole and the slope top (or toe) of the slope is proposed, the influence of the drilling position, the number of the number on the stability safety factor of the slope and the uncertainty of the most dangerous sliding surface is clarified. It provides the theoretical guidance for the design of geological exploration.
【學位授予單位】：武漢大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TV223

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