本文選題：農(nóng)產(chǎn)品改良品 + 威布爾分布　； 參考：《重慶大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國是一個人口大國,農(nóng)業(yè)不僅影響著國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的順利健康發(fā)展,也是解決這13億人溫飽問題的關(guān)鍵。黨的十四大精神指引著我國農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村進(jìn)入新的發(fā)展時期,十六屆五中全會提出了建設(shè)社會主義新農(nóng)村的口號,近期的中央一號文件也為農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展拓展了更大的空間。農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展是市場經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必然結(jié)果,而農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)化需要大量資金支持。然而,由于我國農(nóng)業(yè)具有經(jīng)營分散化、農(nóng)民普遍文化水平偏低、自有資金量較少,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意識薄弱等特點(diǎn),使得中小農(nóng)戶在發(fā)展經(jīng)營過程中遇到融資困難與瓶頸。雖然各省市都有專門支持農(nóng)業(yè)的農(nóng)信社、農(nóng)商行等機(jī)構(gòu),但金融機(jī)構(gòu)對農(nóng)業(yè)貸款依舊抱著較謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。在這種背景下,抱團(tuán)貸款這種新興的貸款方式越來越受到學(xué)者與企業(yè)管理層的關(guān)注。本文在已有文獻(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)上,針對中小農(nóng)戶融資困難的現(xiàn)象,使用多家中小農(nóng)戶聯(lián)保“抱團(tuán)貸款”的融資模式,同時以農(nóng)產(chǎn)品中活體改良品為研究對象,將農(nóng)產(chǎn)品改良品用于銀行動產(chǎn)質(zhì)押業(yè)務(wù),建立了最優(yōu)質(zhì)押率決策模型。具體內(nèi)容如下:首先,在假設(shè)由多家聯(lián)保“抱團(tuán)貸款”的中小企業(yè)、銀行以及物流企業(yè)組成的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品改良品質(zhì)押借貸關(guān)系中,假設(shè)銀行追求利潤最大化。農(nóng)產(chǎn)品改良品在改良過程中,其凈改良率大于零,其生長的改良時間服從兩參數(shù)的威布爾分布,分別考慮了農(nóng)戶期末違約及期末還款兩種情況,建立了銀行最優(yōu)質(zhì)押率的決策模型,求解得出銀行最優(yōu)質(zhì)押率數(shù)學(xué)表達(dá)式,結(jié)果顯示,最優(yōu)質(zhì)押率隨著農(nóng)戶還款概率的增大而增大,隨著銀行存款利率的增大而減小。然后,在此基礎(chǔ)上,從銀行控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)角度,加入擔(dān)保公司參與此項(xiàng)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品改良品質(zhì)押業(yè)務(wù),并且當(dāng)中小農(nóng)戶違約擔(dān)保公司承擔(dān)部分損失情形下,求出銀行利潤最大化情況下的最優(yōu)質(zhì)押率。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)最優(yōu)質(zhì)押率與擔(dān)保公司承擔(dān)損失率呈現(xiàn)很明顯的正比關(guān)系。同時,當(dāng)擔(dān)保公司承擔(dān)損失率越大,銀行給予中小農(nóng)戶最優(yōu)質(zhì)押率越大;銀行存款利率越大,銀行給予中小農(nóng)戶的最優(yōu)質(zhì)押率越大。隨后,在上述研究的基礎(chǔ)上,再從銀行控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的角度,使用銀行下側(cè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的方法,建立銀行給予鐘小寧農(nóng)戶最優(yōu)質(zhì)押率模型,并求解出最優(yōu)質(zhì)押率表達(dá)式。同時,文章在每個模型建立并求解之后使用SPSS進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析求解威布爾分布中的參數(shù)值,再使用數(shù)值分析驗(yàn)證模型的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:China is a populous country, agriculture not only affects the smooth and healthy development of domestic economy, but also is the key to solve the problem of food and clothing for 1.3 billion people. The spirit of the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has guided China's agricultural countryside into a new period of development. The Fifth Plenary session of the 16th Central Committee put forward the slogan of building a new socialist countryside, and the recent document No. 1 of the Central Committee has also expanded more space for the development of agriculture. The development of agricultural industrialization is the inevitable result of the development of market economy, and agricultural industrialization needs a lot of financial support. However, due to the characteristics of decentralized management, low level of farmers' general culture, low amount of their own funds and weak risk awareness, small- and medium-sized farmers encounter financing difficulties and bottlenecks in the process of development and management. Although all provinces and cities have agricultural credit cooperatives, agricultural firms and other institutions, but financial institutions are still more cautious about agricultural loans. In this context, syndicated loan, a new loan method, has been paid more and more attention by scholars and enterprise management. On the basis of existing literature, this paper aims at the phenomenon of financing difficulties of small and medium-sized farmers, and uses the financing model of many small farmers to protect "syndicated loans". At the same time, it takes the living improved products in agricultural products as the research object. An optimal pledge rate decision model is established by using the improved agricultural products in the bank chattel pledge business. The specific contents are as follows: firstly, in the hypothesized relationship between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), banks and logistics enterprises, which is composed of several "syndicated loans", it is assumed that banks pursue the maximization of profits. In the improvement process of agricultural products, the net improvement rate is greater than zero, and the growth time of the improved products is based on the Weibull distribution of two parameters, and the farmers' default and repayment at the end of the term are considered respectively. The decision model of bank's optimal pledge rate is established, and the mathematical expression of bank's optimal pledge rate is obtained. The results show that the optimal pledge rate increases with the increase of farmer's repayment probability and decreases with the increase of bank deposit interest rate. Then, on this basis, from the perspective of bank control risk, we join the guarantee company to participate in the pledge business of the agricultural product improvement, and when the small and medium-sized farmers default guarantee company bears part of the loss, The optimal pledge rate is obtained under the condition of the bank profit maximization. It is found that the optimal pledge rate is directly proportional to the loss rate of the guarantee company. At the same time, the larger the loss rate of guarantee company is, the greater the optimal pledge rate is, and the greater the interest rate of bank deposit is, the greater the optimal pledge rate is. Then, on the basis of the above research, from the point of view of bank risk control, using the method of bank lower side risk control, the model of optimal pledge rate given by bank to Zhong Xiaoning farmers is established, and the expression of optimal pledge rate is solved. At the same time, after each model is established and solved, SPSS is used to analyze and solve the parameter value in Weibull distribution, and then numerical analysis is used to verify the conclusion of the model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323;F832.43

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