【摘要】：隨著經濟的快速發展,城市機動車保有量持續增加,一方面拉動了內需,加快了城市化與機動化進程；另一方面也給有限的城市道路帶來了日益嚴重的交通負擔,進而制約了城市經濟的發展和人們生活水平的進一步提高。如何很好地深入揭示城市道路與機動車的互演化機理,從而使得整個城市交通系統既能滿足人們的出行需求,也能盡可能的減少政府的經濟投資以及土地資源的浪費成為了現在城市交通研究領域中的熱點。 對城市機動車保有量和城市道路關系的研究歷來是交通領域研究的熱點,很多學者從不同角度研究了二者之間的關系,取得了一些有意義的成果。但是,這些研究大部分是基于城市道路和機動車現狀,缺乏從互演化的角度刻畫二者之間的內在相互關系。 鑒于此,本論文在已有研究基礎上,基于Logistic方程,建立了城市道路與機動車的互演化模型,并詳細分析了二者之間的演化關系,具體的學術貢獻如下。 從不同角度建立了無約束條件下的城市道路與機動車的互演化模型、基于交通承載力的城市道路與機動車的互演化模型以及基于不同交通方式的城市道路與機動車的互演化模型,并運用非線性方程穩定性原理和混沌理論對模型進行了穩定性分析。在MATLAB7.1環境下模擬了城市道路與交通的互演化過程,分析了演化過程中二者相互影響、相互作用的反饋關系。最后,以北京、東京、上海、廣州、天津、南京等五個國際性大都市為實例,驗證了本論文所建立的互演化模型。實證分析結果表明,本論文所提出的模型可以較好的模擬城市道路與機動車之間的演化規律。研究結論將為城市規劃或者城市系統改造提供科學依據。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the number of urban motor vehicles has been increasing continuously. On the one hand, it has stimulated domestic demand, accelerated the process of urbanization and motorization; on the other hand, it has also brought an increasingly serious traffic burden to the limited urban roads. Then it restricts the development of urban economy and the further improvement of people's living standard. How to reveal the mechanism of mutual evolution between urban roads and motor vehicles, so that the whole urban transportation system can not only meet the travel needs of people, Also can reduce the government's economic investment and waste of land resources as far as possible has become a hot spot in the field of urban transport research. The research on the relationship between urban motor vehicle ownership and urban road has always been a hot topic in the field of transportation. Many scholars have studied the relationship between the two from different angles and achieved some meaningful results. However, most of these studies are based on the current situation of urban roads and motor vehicles, and lack of mutual evolution to describe the internal relationship between the two. In view of this, based on the existing research and Logistic equation, this paper establishes a mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles, and analyzes the evolutionary relationship between them in detail. The specific academic contributions are as follows. The mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles under unconstrained conditions is established from different angles. The mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles based on traffic carrying capacity, and the mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles based on different traffic modes. The stability of the model is analyzed by using the stability principle of nonlinear equations and chaos theory. The mutual evolution of urban road and traffic is simulated in MATLAB7.1 environment, and the feedback relationship between them is analyzed. Finally, taking Beijing, Tokyo, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Nanjing as examples, the mutual evolution model established in this paper is verified. The empirical results show that the model proposed in this paper can well simulate the evolution between urban roads and motor vehicles. The conclusions will provide scientific basis for urban planning or urban system reconstruction.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.2

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本文編號：2263692