【摘要】：隨著城市經濟的快速增長,人民越來越依賴車輛出行,不僅導致城市機動車數量的增加,而且也促使人民出行次數的增長,給城市道路交通系統帶來了困難,也導致城市的停車問題成為不得不面臨的難題。特別是城市中心區,土地資源短缺,更加加速了車輛增長和停車供用的矛盾。隨著人民對城市交通系統和停車規劃的認識增加,越來越關注城市道路網的路網容量對區域停車規模的影響。鑒于此,本文以城市中心區的停車合理規模作為研究對象,分析路網容量對城市中心區停車合理規模影響,展開基于路網容量的區域停車場合理規模研究。 首先,本文通過城市中心區和路網容量的理論分析,城市中心區的路網容量重新定義。并針對城市中心區路網容量的特點,分析了中心區路網容量的影響因素,新增占道停車對路網容量的影響,在時空消耗法的基礎上,建立了路網容量的計算模型,提高了路網容量的計算精度。 接著,分析城市中心區停車場分類、停車需求的定義和行為特征,總結城市中心區的停車需求特征,并詳細分析停車特性指標。在此基礎上,分析停車需求的影響因素,重點分析路網容量影響中心區停車場規模的作用機理。 然后,在分析各類停車需求預測模型基礎上,用分類處理的方法預測城市中心區的停車規模。通過小汽車增長率和經濟增長率的加權處理,得出專用停車場預測的平均增長率,采用平均增長率法預測城市中心區的專用停車場規模。選用基于OD出行的交通量模型作為預測公共停車場規模的基礎模型,在穿越交通影響因子的約束下,新增路網容量影響因子建立公共停車場停車需求預測模型,并采用高峰小時的停車平均增長率和年第30位停車需求量與年平均停車需求量的比值來修正。分析路內停車場的主要影響因素,選用歷年路內停車泊位的平均增長率預測城市中心區的路內停車場規模。通過上面三者的結合,最終創建基于路網容量的城市中心區停車合理規模模型。 接著,通過分析建立評價指標的原則,以及現有停車場規劃的評價指標,采用系統工程的相關原理與方法,建立針對預測結果的評價指標體系,運用模糊數學理論、對比分析和層次分析法,建立停車預測結果準確度層次結構模型,來評價預測結果。 最后,以重慶觀音橋商圈為案例進行實例證明,分析觀音橋商圈的停車問題,運用基于路網容量的城市中心區停車合理規模模型進行預測,驗證模型的準確度,為以后的停車規模預測提供更好的依據。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of urban economy, people rely more and more on vehicle travel, which not only leads to the increase of the number of urban motor vehicles, but also promotes the increase of people's travel times, which brings difficulties to the urban road traffic system. Also causes the city parking question to become the difficult problem which has to face. Especially in the urban center, the shortage of land resources accelerates the growth of vehicles and parking. With the increasing awareness of urban traffic system and parking planning, more and more attention has been paid to the influence of the network capacity of urban road network on regional parking scale. In view of this, this paper takes the reasonable parking scale of the central district as the research object, analyzes the influence of the road network capacity on the reasonable parking scale of the urban center area, and carries out the research on the reasonable scale of the regional parking lot based on the network capacity. Firstly, the paper redefines the network capacity of urban center area by theoretical analysis of urban center area and road network capacity. According to the characteristics of the network capacity in the central district, the influence factors of the network capacity in the central area and the influence of the new parking on the capacity of the road network are analyzed. The calculation model of the network capacity is established on the basis of the space-time consumption method. The calculation accuracy of network capacity is improved. Then, it analyzes the classification of parking area, the definition and behavior characteristics of parking demand, summarizes the characteristics of parking demand in urban center area, and analyzes the parking characteristic index in detail. On this basis, the influencing factors of parking demand are analyzed, and the mechanism of the influence of road network capacity on the parking lot scale in central area is analyzed. Then, on the basis of analyzing all kinds of parking demand forecasting models, the parking scale of urban center district is predicted by the method of classification. Through the weighted processing of car growth rate and economic growth rate, the average growth rate of special parking lot is obtained, and the average growth rate method is used to predict the scale of special parking lot in urban center area. The traffic volume model based on OD is selected as the basic model to predict the scale of public parking lot. Under the constraint of traversing traffic influence factors, the forecast model of parking demand of public parking lot is established by adding the influence factor of road network capacity. The average growth rate of the peak hour parking and the ratio of the 30th place parking demand to the annual average parking demand are used to modify the model. Based on the analysis of the main influencing factors of the on-street parking lot, the average growth rate of the on-street parking spaces over the years is used to predict the in-road parking lot size in the central district of the city. Finally, a reasonable parking scale model based on network capacity is established. Then, by analyzing the principle of establishing evaluation index and the evaluation index of existing parking lot planning, adopting the relevant principles and methods of system engineering, the evaluation index system for the forecast result is established, and the fuzzy mathematics theory is used. Comparative analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are used to establish a hierarchy model of parking prediction accuracy to evaluate the prediction results. Finally, taking Chongqing Guanyinqiao commercial district as an example, the paper analyzes the parking problem of Guanyinqiao commercial district, and uses the reasonable parking scale model based on network capacity to predict and verify the accuracy of the model. It provides a better basis for the prediction of parking scale in the future.
【學位授予單位】：重慶交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.7

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