【摘要】：隨著我國社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展，高速公路建設(shè)取得了巨大的進(jìn)步。高速公路規(guī)劃作為高速公路建設(shè)的前期工作，為其科學(xué)發(fā)展提供了重要支撐。而其中交通量預(yù)測又是交通規(guī)劃的重要環(huán)節(jié)，直接影響著規(guī)劃的科學(xué)性。因此，對交通量預(yù)測進(jìn)行研究有著十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 首先，本文對交通量研究的國內(nèi)外發(fā)展歷程進(jìn)行了介紹，分析了當(dāng)前存在的問題，明確了研究方向。其次，在對交通量變化規(guī)律和影響因素研究的基礎(chǔ)上，針對傳統(tǒng)四階段法適用性不強(qiáng)、忽略全局的弊端進(jìn)行了改進(jìn)。最后，依托鄧州至豫鄂省界高速公路項(xiàng)目，對交通量預(yù)測進(jìn)行了實(shí)例研究。在交通調(diào)查與分析方面，利用“Foxpro軟件包”和“串并聯(lián)法則”對原始數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行校核，并對綜合交通運(yùn)輸進(jìn)行分析；在社會經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測方面，利用二次多項(xiàng)式法和三次平滑指數(shù)法進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測，并進(jìn)行了定性定量分析；在交通發(fā)生方面，利用未來彈性系數(shù)法計(jì)算了集中發(fā)生交通量；在交通分布方面，利用弗雷特法、重力模型和logit模型分別對正常交通量、誘增交通量和轉(zhuǎn)移進(jìn)行預(yù)測，并匯總得到了未來特征年OD表；在交通分配方面，采用均衡模型對相關(guān)道路進(jìn)行交通量分配，并對互通立交轉(zhuǎn)向交通流量進(jìn)行了模擬，最后對未來交通量進(jìn)行了分析。在交通量預(yù)測整個實(shí)例研究過程中利用TransCAD軟件并結(jié)合優(yōu)化方法進(jìn)行，，提高了預(yù)測的科學(xué)性。 本文結(jié)合相關(guān)理論對傳統(tǒng)四階段法進(jìn)行了優(yōu)化，并結(jié)合鄧州至豫鄂省界高速公路進(jìn)行交通量預(yù)測進(jìn)行了實(shí)例論證，為以后同類工程提供一定參考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's social economy, highway construction has made great progress. Highway planning, as a preliminary work of highway construction, provides important support for its scientific development. Among them, traffic volume prediction is an important link in traffic planning, which directly affects the scientific nature of the planning. Therefore, the study of traffic volume prediction has a very important practical significance. Firstly, this paper introduces the development of traffic volume research at home and abroad, analyzes the existing problems, and clarifies the research direction. Secondly, on the basis of the research on the law of traffic volume change and the influencing factors, the traditional four-stage method is improved because of its weak applicability and neglecting the whole situation. Finally, based on the highway project from Dengzhou to Henan and Hubei province, a case study on traffic volume prediction is carried out. In the aspect of traffic investigation and analysis, we use "Foxpro software package" and "series-parallel rule" to check the original data and analyze the comprehensive transportation. In the aspect of social economic prediction, the quadratic polynomial method and cubic smoothing index method are used to carry out economic prediction, and qualitative and quantitative analysis are carried out, and in terms of traffic occurrence, the volume of concentrated traffic is calculated by using the method of elasticity coefficient in the future. In terms of traffic distribution, Fret method, gravity model and logit model are used to predict the normal traffic volume, induced traffic volume and traffic transfer, and the OD table for the future characteristic year is obtained. In the aspect of traffic allocation, the traffic volume of relevant roads is allocated by using equilibrium model, and the traffic flow of interchanges is simulated. Finally, the traffic volume in the future is analyzed. In the whole research process of traffic volume prediction, the TransCAD software and the optimization method are used to improve the scientific nature of the prediction. In this paper, the traditional four-stage method is optimized based on the relevant theory, and the traffic volume prediction of the highway from Dengzhou to Henan and Hubei province is demonstrated by an example, which provides a certain reference for the similar projects in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.14

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