在泰國黃巾軍，紅巾軍之間的沖突已經引起了公眾的關注。了解泰國總理他信的影響是很重要的。它已成為一個國際問題，因為它不僅影響泰國國內的發展，也影響到國家與國家之間的關系和政策，例如，泰國對中國的國家關系和外交政策。在這份備忘錄，，我想將它分為4個部分來分析他信（他信）的狀態，因為他是泰國的不穩定的主要特征。在這份備忘錄中，我講分成四個部分來分析他信•西那瓦（他信），因為他是泰國不穩定的主要因素。

1.他信是如何影響泰國人的 - 為什么他信在有些人中受歡迎，而有些人卻很討厭他。
2.當前的政治形勢/他信的狀態
3.關于他信的未來的預測

4.他信的問題是如何影響中國的和我們國家怎么處理他信的問題

1.他信是如何影響泰國人的 - 為什么他信在有些人中受歡迎，而有些人卻很討厭他。

The conflicts between yellow shirt and red shirt in Thailand have caught the public's attention. It is important to understand Thaksin's impact on Thailand. It has become an international issue as it doesn't only affect Thailand's domestic development but also affect the relationship and policies between countries and countries, for example, the diplomatic relations and foreign policy of China to Thailand. In this memorandum, I would like to divide it into 4 parts to analyze the status of Thaksin Shinawatra (Thaksin) as he is the main character of the instability of Thailand.

1. How Thaksin affects Thai's people - why Thaksin is popular among someone but hated by the others.
2. Current political situation/status of Thaksin
3. The estimation of Thaksin's future

4. How do the issues of Thaksin affect China and how can our country do to deal with the issue of Thaksin

1. How Thaksin affects Thai's people -why Thaksin is popular among someone but hated by the others

Thaksin Shinawatra was the 23rd Prime Minister of Thailand, in office from 9 February 2001Â to 19 September 2006. He was a Billionaire politician and businessman and the first prime minister in Thailand's history to lead an elected government through a full term in office. In September 2006, he was deposed in a military coup. According to Pasuk Phongpaichit and Christopher John Baker (2004), there are 2 description of Thaksin: "the best prime minister in Thailand" and another is "grubby businessman".

However, the Shinawatra government also faced allegations for example the electoral fraud, corruption and authoritarianism. According to the website from PAD and news form BBC which was reported by Simon Austin (2007), Thaksin suppressed the Thailand media and told the Thai military to employ any means to suppress an insurgency in the south of Thailand. Also, Thai's people were upset because he sold the national assets to international investors and his unrespectable of human rights. Although he introduced a lot of economic and social policies to enhance Thai's economy and alleviate rural poverty, there were military coup and Thaksin was deposed.

After deposed in 2006, according to the news from BBC (2010), a new government was formed and Thaksin started controlling to opposition power of the new government overseas. It is reported that he was moving between several locations to evade possible extradition, such as Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Hehas appeared via video to encourage his supporters to launch and attend several demonstrations to oppose the Abhisit government.

Thailand was in the years of political turmoil since a military coup deposed Prime Minister Thaksin in September 2006. According to Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs (2010), As in Thailand, the population size is centralized in rural area and during the presidential period, he has did much for the rural area, so he could control the people in Thai. After the deposition of Thaksin, Thai has split up into 2 main groups. One is People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), known as the "yellow shirts", another one is The United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) known as the "red shirts". Up to now, there are still conflicts between them.

Why do some people work against Thaksin?
People work against Thaksin formed PAD. According to Emma Chanlett-Avery (2009), the PAD is ideologically in sync with the elite establishment of Bangkok: a mix of the military, royalists, the bureaucracy, and largely urban and middle class citizens. They would like to prevent the emergence of a highhanded popular leader like Thaksin. Some of the local people are upset because Thaksin thought that police officers would be more appropriate administrators in the south. Also, Thaksin ignored elites as he denied the importance of elites. Moreover, some community leaders did not like Thaksin's highhanded style and corruption. People don't want corrupt businessmen to control the government. So that, elites and royal family in Thai against Thaksin and would like to take the leading role of Thailand.

Why do some people support Thaksin?
People who support Thaksin formed UDD. They are the follower and loyalists of Thaksin as they would like to bring back Thaksin's rule in Thai. According to Emma Chanlett-Avery (2009), Thaksin's traditional power base is the rural, poor population of Thailand. He is like a hero for the lower classes in Thailand. It is because the Patrons, he has done so much for them in order to improve people's living standard. So that, supporters think that Thaksin can provide the best thing for them and elites would not concern and care their well-being. So, they organized some counterdemonstration that opposes the Abhisit government.

2. Current political situation/ status of Thaksin

In September 2009, according to the online news of Bangkok Post, Thaksin said that he was ready to return as Prime Minister in Thailand.

"He was ready to return to Thailand to be prime minister if it is the people's wish for him to solve the country's problems." (Bangkok Post, 2009) Also, He would like the Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to dissolve the House of Representatives and then to return the power to the people. We can see that, Thaksin was still ambitious to return to Thailand and bring back his rule. And the UDD and PAD started power struggling during these years.

In current years, Thaksin and his loyalists have launched demonstration and violence acts to against the Abhisit government. Through the violent acts, we can see that Thaksin was still powerful and he can still influence the politics and economies of Thailand. For example, according to Emma Chanlett-Avery (2009), in December 2008, although the violence in Bangkok was widely seen as being handled relatively well by the Abhsit government, the demonstrators who blockaded the airports caused chaos and substantial economic damage.

2010 Thai political protests
The political environment is unstable and even there was Bloodshed in Thailand. The 2010 Thai political protests is one of the examples. There were violent confrontations between the protesters and the military, and they failed to negotiate. More than 90 people were killed, and more than 2,100 injured. The protest was cracked down on 19 May.

According to Dr. Sak Pinthong (2009), in 2009, Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was raising the public's discontent with his government. But at that time, the Thai's King Bhumibol Adulyadej entered to the hospital in September and there were civil war in Thai. In 2010, because of the struggle of power, there are many conflicts and violent action in Thai. For example, according to the Bangkok Post (2010), in March, the Red-Shirts converge on Bangkok, hold first big rally, occupy government district, in April, Red-Shirts occupy Bangkok shopping district. During 13-17 May, 36 people was killed in Bangkok clashes.

According to BBC news (2010), In 19 May, Thai Army storms protestors' camp resulting in 6 deaths and Red-Shirt leaders surrendered and are arrested. We can see that in Thai, Thaksin still has his popularity among Thai's people. Even be deposed 4 years, there are still many supporters of Thaksin in Thai and still would like to bring back the rule of Thaksin. In 2010, there are many domestic violent acts in Thai and the political power struggle between UDD and PAD. Although Thaksin is not stay in Thai, he still can influence the mass.

The meeting with Sanan Kachornprasart can be one of the examples to explain the status of Thaksin is still high. According to Bangkok Pundit (2010), Sanan Kachornprasart is the Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand and Chart Thai Pattana Party's chief adviser. In the past few weeks, he visited different political party's leader and people who have large influential power in Thai, including Thaksin. He has prepared a national reconciliation plan in order to bring reconciliation to Thai. So, he seeks their opinions and would like to cooperate with conflicting groups so as to reduce the political conflicts in Thailand. Although he said that it was his personal act and not an official action, we can still understand the importance of Thaksin. It is because Thakisn is the important character in the violence and political movement in Thailand. If he could stop his political movement, it is easier to bring the national reconciliation. According to the online news from Bangkok Post (2010), Sanan said that "Thaksin agrees with my reconciliation effort and he wants to see Thai people turn to talking to each other,". Also, he said that Thaksin is able to help solving the problem in the country.

3. The estimation of Thaksin's future
In fact, Thaksin was deposed for 4 years. It is quite a long time and the influence of Thaksin is starting decreasing, but it is undeniably Thaksin is still very powerful as he an influential in Thailand's politics and plays one of the leading roles in Thailand.

For Thai's people point of view, many of them hate the power struggle. From 2006-2010, there were too many conflicts and violent acts. According to Jonathan Steele (2010), People in Thai would like to seek for a stable and peaceful environment. For people who live in rural area, they just want to have a stable condition and hope that the Prime Minister can implement more economical policies to improve their living standard. For businessmen, the years of power struggling were not good for them to run their business. The violent acts were harm for their business, such as the tourism, in these years, less visitors from the world came to Thailand because of the unstable situation of Thai. People are afraid of their safeguard and the sudden violent acts. So that, even for tourism or domestic economy, people seek for a stable environment so as to improve Thai's economy and their living standard by not always afraid of civil war and the problem of safely.

But we cannot deny that there are some Thai people that still influenced by Thaksin as they think the rule of Thaksin is memorable and effective. The blind followers still follow the step of Thaksin and Thaksin still has his bargaining power in Thailand's political stage. Also, some of the Thai's people believe that Thaksin is the one can bring them a peaceful and stable Thailand. There are still many Thaksin's supporters in Thailand.

4. How does the issue of Thaksin affect China and how can our country do to deal with the issue of Thaksin
According to Emma Chanlett-Avery(2009), Thailand has long known for its ability to maintain and keep good relations with many countries, for example, Thailand enjoys strong economic, political, and cultural ties with both China and the United States. But Thialand's political movement would affect the relationship between countries and countries, for example, affect China's export and tourism. What can our country do in order to maintain a good relationship with the tumultuous Thailand?

Although we estimate the power of Thaksin will start decreasing as he was deposed by 4 years such a long time, he still holds power and influence. Also, the unstable situation of Thai still will be a concerned issue of public.

In my opinion, for the Military perspective, the civil war in Thai would easily become a national war if the great power of the world such as China, U.K. and U.S.A. involve in the issue. Economically, in stead of affecting Thai's domestic economy, it also affects the tourism, exports of Thai and Chain and other countries.

As I have mentioned before, the issue of Thai would affect our country's foreign policy and diplomatic relations. For the foreign policy, it is recommended that we should hold a wait and see attitude. It is better for us not to involve in because it's a domestic civil war of Thai. If our country and other countries also involve in, it will damage the world's balance of power and it will increase the opportunity of having international war. We can take the example of the war of South Korea and the North Korea, the problem of boundary between them is a long term problem, and a regional war was happened and it is easy to become a national war as other country enter to the war.

According to Kim Se-Jeong (2010), the involvement of U.S. has rising up the tense situation. After the Second World War, many countries started to produce and invest weapons so as to protect themselves. But in fact, we can foresee that when the third world war happens, the world will be destroyed. By taking the example of the war between South Korea and North Korea, it is suggested our country not to involve in the political issue of Thai. It is better for us not to have political or economical or military support to red shirt or yellow shirt, not to show our standpoint whether we stand on Thaksin's side or not.

To maintain the relationship between China and Thai, our country can show our awareness of the issue. Our diplomatic department should follow the case of Thaksin's and Thailand's political movement. Although it is recommended we hold a wait and see attitude, we can pay attention and follow the issues of Thailand to show our awareness that China is concerned about the issues but it is inconvenient and unsuitable for China to involve in the issues.

Conclusion  結論

Because of Thaksin Shinawatra, the internal power struggle in Thai has last for a few years. Although he was deposed for 4 years, in Thailand, he still has a great influence and plays one of the leading roles in the political stage. He is still active in Thailand's political movement and affects the situation of Thailand. To deal with the issue, it is recommended our country to hold a wait and see attitude and pay attention, follow the issue to show our awareness. It is hoped that the political movement of Thailand can be settle down and China can enjoy a stable and harmonious relationship with Thailand.

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