本文選題：建筑工程項目　切入點：指標體系　出處：《新疆大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,風險評估作為風險管理的重要組成部分,在建筑業生產實踐中受到越來越多的重視,建筑工程風險評估問題成為研究的熱點。隨著國家援疆力度的加強,新疆建筑行業存在較好的發展環境和機遇,因此,本地區建筑工程項目風險評估研究在工程項目管理中顯得尤為重要。建筑工程項目風險受多因素影響,本文考慮到新疆地區地域的特殊性和各風險因素的不確定性、復雜性等基本特征,以該地區工程項目為例進行風險因素識別。在運用層次分析法(AHP法)確定各風險因素權重的基礎上,建立多層次灰色綜合評價模型,對各風險評估指標進行綜合評價和排序,構建了具有地域性特色的風險評估指標體系。本文在應用多層次灰色評價方法的基礎上,采用基于遺傳算法優化的神經網絡方法(GA-BP神經網絡),構建了新疆地區建筑工程項目風險評估模型,并應用此模型進行了新疆地區建筑工程項目風險評估分析。GA-BP神經網絡模型預測值與多層次灰色評價結果吻合良好,驗證了GA-BP神經網絡風險評估模型的可行性。GA-BP神經網絡有著較高的收斂速度和預測精度,為新疆地區建筑工程項目風險評估研究提供了一種新的思路與方法。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as an important part of risk management, risk assessment has been paid more and more attention in the construction industry. The construction industry in Xinjiang has a good development environment and opportunities. Therefore, the risk assessment of construction projects in this area is particularly important in the project management. The risk of construction projects is affected by many factors. This paper takes into account the regional particularity of Xinjiang and the uncertainty and complexity of various risk factors. Taking the engineering project in this area as an example, the risk factors are identified. On the basis of determining the weight of each risk factor by using AHP), a multi-level grey comprehensive evaluation model is established, and the comprehensive evaluation and ranking of each risk assessment index are carried out. A risk assessment index system with regional characteristics is constructed. Using the neural network method based on genetic algorithm optimization, the risk assessment model of construction project in Xinjiang area is constructed, which is based on GA-BP neural network. The prediction value of GA-BP neural network model is in good agreement with the result of multi-level grey evaluation. The feasibility of the risk assessment model of GA-BP neural network. GA-BP neural network has higher convergence speed and prediction accuracy. It provides a new way of thinking and method for risk assessment of construction projects in Xinjiang.
【學位授予單位】：新疆大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU71

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本文編號：1569901