本文選題：房地產投資項目 + 傳統投資評價法　； 參考：《西南交通大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產行業目前是我國經濟的支柱產業,對我國經濟的發展有著重要的作用。房地產開發項目有占用資金大、開發周期長、行業受政策影響較大等特點,運用科學合理的評價方法對房地產投資項目進行評價決策十分必要。 傳統的項目投資評價方法在對房地產投資項目進行評價時,有著巨大的缺陷。傳統投資評價方法靜態地考慮一期投資項目單獨的現金流,而不考慮開發項目對企業可能帶來的戰略價值。房地產行業有著很大的不確定性,在面對這些不確定性時需要管理者靈活應對。而這些不確定性和管理柔性、靈活性就帶來的開發項目的實物期權價值。實物期權方法也考慮到了開發項目對后續項目價值的影響。總之,實物期權方法相對于傳統評價方法的優點是考慮到了不確定性帶來的機會、管理柔性和靈活性的價值,和對企業戰略發展的意義。 本文首先介紹了傳統項目投資評價方法和實物期權項目投資評價理論和方法,并對兩種不同的評價方法進行了對比。在運用實物期權評價方法時,本文考慮了目前房地產市場存在的泡沫,將泡沫因素加入到了實物期權評價法的考量當中,得到了泡沫修正后的實物期權評價模型。在第五章本文結合筆者在房地產咨詢行業的世界五大行之一——戴德梁行(DTZ)房地產咨詢公司做過的項目,進行了實證案例分析。通過利用傳統投資評價方法、實物期權評價方法和泡沫修正后的實物期權評價方法三種方法,分別對投資項目的價值進行計算；并運用敏感性分析方法,對實物期權模型的五大主要因素進行敏感性分析。利用傳統投資評價法的凈現值法,得出一期項目和二期項目的現金流和凈現值；利用增長實物期權的評價方法則測算開發項目的擴展價值,擴展價值中包含開發項目的增長實物期權價值；然后利用泡沫修正后的實物期權定價模型對開發項目的價值進行計算,得到了去除泡沫后項目的擴展價值。最終對三種評價方法和結果進行比較和分析。分析結果表明,實物期權方法更能夠體現不確定性給項目帶來的機會,管理者的柔性管理和靈活性管理帶來的價值,投資項目對企業的戰略價值。而泡沫修正后的期權價值模型,能去除泡沫因素帶來的虛假繁榮,給過熱的房地產市場合理地降溫,使計算出的投資項目價值更加科學合理,接近實際。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of our country's economy. It plays an important role in the economic development of our country. The real estate development project has the characteristics of large capital, long development cycle and great influence on the policy. It is very necessary to use scientific and reasonable evaluation method to evaluate the investment items of real estate.
The traditional project investment evaluation method has a huge defect when evaluating the real estate investment project. The traditional investment evaluation method is static considering the separate cash flow of an investment project, without considering the strategic value that the development project may bring to the enterprise. The real estate industry has a great uncertainty in the face of these indeterminacy. It is necessary for managers to respond flexibly. While these uncertainties and management flexibility, flexibility brings the real option value of development projects. Real options approach also takes into account the impact of development projects on the value of subsequent projects. In a word, the advantages of real options approach to the traditional evaluation method are brought into consideration with uncertainty. The opportunity, the value of management flexibility and flexibility, and the significance to the development of enterprise strategy.
This article first introduces the traditional project investment evaluation method and the real option project investment evaluation theory and method, and compares the two different evaluation methods. In the use of real option evaluation method, this paper considers the existing bubble in the real estate market, and adds the bubble factor to the real option evaluation method. In the fifth chapter, an empirical case analysis is carried out in the fifth chapter of the real estate consulting company, one of the five largest banks in the world's real estate consulting industry, the ddliang (DTZ) real estate consulting company. Through the use of the traditional investment evaluation method, the real option evaluation method and the bubble correction Three methods are used to evaluate the value of the investment projects, and the sensitivity analysis method is used to analyze the sensitivity of the five major factors of the real option model. The net present value of the traditional investment evaluation method is used to obtain the cash flow and net present value of the first and two projects; The evaluation method of real option estimates the expansion value of the development project, and the value of the real options is included in the expansion value. Then the value of the development project is calculated with the modified real option pricing model after the bubble correction, and the expansion value of the project after the removal of the bubble is obtained. Finally, the three evaluation methods and the conclusion are made. Results are compared and analyzed. The results show that real option method can reflect the opportunities that uncertainty brings to the project, the value brought by flexible management and flexibility management, and the strategic value of investment projects to the enterprise. The rational cooling of the hot real estate market makes the calculated value of the investment project more scientific and reasonable, and is close to reality.

【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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