本文選題：土地利用 + 能源消費　； 參考：《華中農業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：碳排放問題導致全球氣候變暖,引起全世界的廣泛關注,全球各國積極推行發(fā)展低碳經濟。我國亦主動承擔一定的降低碳排放任務,但是中國現(xiàn)階段處于工業(yè)化以及快速城市化階段,能源消費增加及建設用地擴張必然增加碳排放,因此,中國在碳減排方面壓力巨大。近幾年來,武漢市在經濟、城市建設等各方面都發(fā)展迅速。但武漢市城市化的快速發(fā)展,吸引了更多的外來人口,導致武漢市城市規(guī)模迅速擴張,同時經濟發(fā)展帶來的土地需求增加也將增加武漢市碳減排的壓力。研究武漢市土地利用碳排放的影響因素,可以從根本上找到降低武漢市土地利用碳排放的解決方法。 本文首先根據(jù)武漢市2002-2012年各種土地利用類型數(shù)據(jù)以及能源消費數(shù)據(jù),核算武漢市的凈碳排放量及相關指標,并分析了武漢市碳排放總量、人均碳排放量等相關指標的時序特征,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：建設用地與耕地為碳源,林地、水域、園地及草地為碳匯；建設用地碳排放變化決定武漢市凈碳排放變化,同時建設用地碳排放來自于能源消費,即表明武漢市經濟發(fā)展對于能源消費的依賴度很高。繼而根據(jù)人均碳排放量和經濟發(fā)展之間的關系進行了脫鉤判斷,發(fā)現(xiàn)武漢市在整個研究期內大都處于擴張脫鉤水平以上 其次,運用改進的Kaya恒等式及LMDI分解法對武漢市凈碳排放進行了因素分解,分解為單位土地碳排放強度、上地利用結構、單位GDP用地強度、人均GDP和人口規(guī)模5個因素,然后運用LMDI分解方法計算各因素對碳排放的貢獻值及貢獻率,并分析在整個研究期內各個因素對碳排放的影響。研究結果表明,人均GDP、土地利用結構和人口規(guī)模是碳排放的拉動因素,其中,人均GDP對碳排放影響最大,土地利用結構次之,而人口規(guī)模相對較小。單位GDP用地強度和單位土地碳排放強度是碳減排的促進因素,其中單位GDP用地強度對碳減排促進極大,單位土地碳排放強度相對較小,但是其在整個研究期內波動較大。 最后,依據(jù)前面的研究歸納主要結論,分別從經濟發(fā)展、土地利用、人口規(guī)模以及政府宏觀調控四個角度提出相應的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Carbon emissions cause global warming, cause widespread concern around the world, countries around the world actively promote the development of low-carbon economy. China is also taking the initiative to reduce carbon emissions, but China is now in the stage of industrialization and rapid urbanization, the increase of energy consumption and the expansion of construction land is bound to increase carbon emissions, therefore, China is under great pressure in terms of carbon emission reduction. In recent years, Wuhan City in the economy, urban construction and other aspects of rapid development. However, the rapid development of urbanization in Wuhan attracts more foreign population, which leads to the rapid expansion of urban scale in Wuhan. Meanwhile, the increase of land demand brought by economic development will also increase the pressure of carbon emission reduction in Wuhan. By studying the influencing factors of carbon emission from land use in Wuhan, we can find the solution to reduce carbon emission from land use in Wuhan. Based on the data of various land use types and energy consumption from 2002 to 2012, this paper calculates the net carbon emissions and related indicators of Wuhan, and analyzes the temporal characteristics of the related indicators, such as total carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions, etc. The results show that: construction land and cultivated land are carbon source, woodland, water area, garden land and grassland are carbon sinks; carbon emissions from construction land determine the change of net carbon emissions in Wuhan, and carbon emissions from construction land come from energy consumption. That is to say, Wuhan's economic development is highly dependent on energy consumption. Then, according to the relationship between carbon emissions per capita and economic development, it is found that Wuhan is mostly above the level of expansion decoupling during the whole research period. Secondly, using the improved Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition method, we decompose the net carbon emissions of Wuhan into five factors: carbon emission intensity per unit land, land use structure, land intensity per unit GDP, GDP per capita and population scale. Then the contribution value and contribution rate of each factor to carbon emission were calculated by LMDI decomposition method, and the influence of each factor on carbon emission was analyzed during the whole study period. The results show that per capita GDP, land use structure and population scale are the driving factors of carbon emissions, among which, per capita GDP has the greatest impact on carbon emissions, followed by the structure of land use, while the population scale is relatively small. The land intensity per unit GDP and the carbon emission intensity per unit land are the promoting factors of carbon emission reduction. Among them, the land intensity per unit GDP promotes carbon emission reduction greatly, and the carbon emission intensity per unit land is relatively small, but it fluctuates greatly during the whole research period. Finally, according to the main conclusions of the previous research, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations from the four angles of economic development, land use, population scale and government macro-control.
【學位授予單位】：華中農業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F301.2;F205

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本文編號：1989346